Issue 26 now available!

Global Aviation Outlook 2015

A year when everyone can make money: No commercial event in 2015 can have an impact as massive as the recent fall in fuel prices.

View online Download PDF


In this issue

Main Feature

Aviation Outlook 2015: A year when everyone can make money

No commercial event in 2015 can have an impact as massive as the recent, continued, slide in fuel prices. Oil’s fall from grace in 2014/15 will influence global airline profits more positively than any single event in modern history, at least for now. 

+ Read full article +

Opinion

Proactive customer management: Optimising revenue per customer, not revenue per seat

In recent years, the airline industry has posted higher levels of profits, thanks to a combination of network realignment, and fleet and schedule rationalisation, which can be apportioned to greater industry consolidation and the resulting control in capacity and pricing. [By Nawal Taneja] 

+ Read full article +

Regions

In slow-growth Western Europe the uncertain impact of lower fuel prices will determine the outlook

The economic backdrop in Western Europe was sluggish in 2014 and remains fragile into 2015. In particular, the eurozone nations continue to struggle to recover fully from the global recession. A Jan-2015 poll of economists conducted by the Financial Times suggests that most experts expect GDP growth in the eurozone to be around only 1% in 2015. 

+ Read full article +

Regions

A capacity truce in Australia’s domestic market - A return to profit for Qantas and Virgin Australia

When Qantas and Virgin Australia recently ended their capacity war in the domestic market by tapering the high growth of past years, there was quiet jubilation in many quarters. But Qantas and Virgin now have many battle scars to address before they right themselves. 

+ Read full article +

Regions

India starts to sparkle again – and it could just be for real this time!

India’s beleaguered aviation industry is starting to show signs that could mark the beginning of a structural turnaround in its fortunes. The sharp decline in fuel prices is a major source of relief in a market where aviation turbine fuel (ATF) is subject to some of the highest taxes in the world. 

+ Read full article +

Regions

LCC growth slows and flag carriers look to restructure but long-term prospects remain bright

Southeast Asia is a market of both challenges and promise. 2015 will mark the second consecutive year of slower growth and potentially the second consecutive year when most airlines ended in the red. 

+ Read full article +

Regions

For Northeast Asia’s airlines, previously slow to adapt, 2015 spells opportunity

2015, the year of the sheep, may not sound the most auspicious for Northeast Asian aviation. But it is a reflective mode, offering prudent advice that should be taken sooner rather than later.

+ Read full article +

Regions

North America – looking good and continued reason to be bullish about the bottom line

Countries within North America enter 2015 with a solid economic outlook compared with Europe and some regions in Asia and Latin America. GDP growth in the United States is forecast at 2.5% to 3%, while Canada should approach growth of approximately 2.5%. 

+ Read full article +

Regions

Gulf carriers enter a new phase of growth, opposed by louder voices seeking to slow their expansion

The Middle East enters 2015 still on the high notes of 2014 that saw the delivery of Etihad’s first 787 and A380, and Qatar’s first A380 and the world’s first A350. Both airlines are using their new aircraft to secure a stronger service positioning, expand their networks and realise the benefits from next-gen technology. 

+ Read full article +

Regions

Latin America’s outlook brightens after a difficult 2014 - but some markets remain challenging

Overall there are still huge prospects for growth in Latin America despite the recent headwinds. Slumping resources prices are hurting and the gloss has fallen off many of the region’s emerging markets. But as fuel prices fall, the region’s leading groups and its relatively small number of LCCs are eager to reaccelerate expansion.  

+ Read full article +

Regions

Russia’s slowdown overhangs Eastern European growth, but Turkey still sparkles

In geographical terms, most countries in the eastern part of the European continent are classified as developing or emerging economies. IMF forecasts GDP growth of 2.9% for emerging Europe in 2015, hardly rocket-fuelled by comparison with emerging markets in other parts of the world, but certainly faster than the 1.8% growth forecast for the European Union and 1.3% for the eurozone countries. 

+ Read full article +

Feature

Low-cost airports and terminals are changing shape

In 2006 and 2009, CAPA published a management report on low-cost airports and terminals (LCATs). At the time, LCATs were very much in favour within the budget airline business as that segment grew rapidly worldwide. Less than a decade on, the segment is still growing, albeit less rapidly in the last year, as seen from the chart on the right. 

+ Read full article +

Regions

Liberalisation seeps into African aviation policy – when what is needed is a flood of new services

Africa has huge growth potential, particularly if liberalisation accelerates. But challenges remain in some of the region’s major markets. The continent’s largest airline, Ethiopian Airlines, continues to pursue rapid expansion in 2015 while SAA and EgyptAir restructure, and LCCs are starting to make inroads as cracks appear in the protectionist barriers to entry.

+ Read full article +

© 2010-2015 CAPA - Centre for Aviation